Is your strategy actually profitable? Find out in seconds.
Your win rate means nothing without this number. Enter your stats and I'll show you the expected value of every trade you take.
Expectancy is the average amount you'd expect to make (or lose) on every single trade over a large sample. Positive expectancy means your strategy makes money over time. Negative means the house always wins eventually, no matter how good your last week felt.
The formula: (win rate x avg win) - (loss rate x avg loss). If that number is positive, you have an edge. If it's negative, you're donating to the market.
R is just your average win divided by your average loss. It tells you how many "R" (risk units) you make when you win. An R of 1.5 means your winners are 1.5x your losers. The higher your R, the lower your win rate needs to be to stay profitable. A scalper with R of 0.8 needs to win over 55% of the time. A swing trader with R of 3.0 only needs 25%.
Kelly tells you the mathematically optimal percentage of your bankroll to risk on each trade. The problem? Full Kelly is way too aggressive for real trading. One bad streak and you're down 40-60%. That's why every serious risk manager uses quarter Kelly (Kelly / 4). It's the sweet spot between growing your account and not wanting to throw your laptop out the window.
This is expectancy times 100. It's a gut-check number. If you take 100 trades with these stats, this is roughly what you'd end up with. Emphasis on "roughly" — variance is real, and a small sample can look very different from the math. That's what the Monte Carlo sim is for.
Use the full calculator to distribute contracts across your accounts. It uses your edge to run Monte Carlo sims and payout projections.
Size my positions nowThe position sizer gives you a fast answer. Drawdown, risk, instrument, done.
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